Factors Influencing Recent Trends in Retail Electricity Prices in the United States

Low-cost electricity has long afforded the United States with a competitive economic advantage. In recent years, however, retail electricity prices have risen rapidly in nominal terms. Though this increase in national-average retail electricity prices has largely tracked inflation, some states experienced steep price increases exceeding inflation, whereas many others saw reductions in inflation-adjusted prices. Research at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory seeks to better understand recent retail electricity pricing trends and the myriad drivers of changes in state-level prices--including distribution investments, extreme weather and wildfires, load growth, wind and solar deployment, natural gas dependence, and more. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the research findings described in the documents linked below underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability. 

Our work in this area has resulted in:

• A published journal article, featuring statistical analysis: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2025.107516
• A "full summary" PPT, which summarizes the article and provides supplementary material, inclusive of further background, additional trends and drivers, state case studies, and early data from 2025: https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2025-10/full_summary_retail_price_trends_drivers.pdf
• A "presentation" PPT, which provides a more concise version of the full summary; it excludes some background material and some of the trends and data, as well as some of the slides on the statistical analysis, as well as most discussion of knowledge gaps and research opportunities: https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2025-10/presentation_retail_price_trends_drivers.pdf
• A data visualization tool that allows users to explore some of the data that underpins the journal article: https://emp.lbl.gov/depth-tool-drivers-electricity-pricing-trends-history
• The specific data and code used for the journal article: https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2025-10/pub.zip