Prospective Evaluation of the Energy and CO₂ Emissions Impact of China’s 2010 – 2013 Efficiency Standards for Products

Since China introduced its first mandatory minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for eight major household products in 1989, its MEPS program has expanded significantly to cover nearly 60 residential, industrial and commercial products. In June of 2012, the pace of standards development for new and revised standards was further accelerated with the launch of the national "100 Energy Efficiency Standards." Initiatives. An unprecedented 21 MEPS were adopted by China from 2012 to 2013, compared to only 7 MEPS adopted from 2010 to 2011. The Chinese MEPS program now covers 15 products in the residential sector, 15 types of commercial and office equipment, 14 types of industrial equipment and 13 lighting products, making it one of the most comprehensive MEPS program in the world. This study provides an updated prospective evaluation of the potential energy and CO₂ impact of 23 of the 28 MEPS adopted by China from 2010 to 2013.

This study updates a previous analysis (Zhou et al. 2011) by quantifying the additional potential energy and CO₂ reductions from the newest standards that have been adopted since 2010. The most recent actual and projected sales, usage, and efficiency data were collected for 14 product categories covered under 23 MEPS adopted between 2010 and 2013. Three scenarios are then used to quantify the energy and CO₂ reduction potential of the one-time implementation of these 23 MEPS, including a baseline counterfactual scenario, the actual MEPS scenario and a best available technologies efficiency scenario. The setting of the baseline efficiency is crucial to determining the savings potential of the new and revised MEPS and international best available technology efficiency levels, as it reflects the market average in the absence of MEPS. For this study, the average baseline is based on either the reported 2010 market-average efficiency if sales-weighted efficiency data is available for new product MEPS and selected products with revised MEPS, or the minimum efficiency requirement of the previous MEPS for products with revised MEPS from 2010 to 2013 that do not have sales-weighted efficiency data. Using sales-weighted efficiency data for the baseline help capture market transformation that has already occurred prior to the implementation of the MEPS, and can better differentiate the savings that are attributable to MEPS. The efficiency levels of best available technologies are taken from recent reviews of international commercially available best available technologies.